Is Hype the next Solana? It is already above $14 Billion+ as circulatory Market Capitalisation (Mcap) and Fully Diluted Valuation(FDV)is 3x higher. The above statement regarding comparison of Hype with Solana would have made sense when it was rising from $2 to $10 or may be when it fell from $33 to $12. So why now? Why am I eager to pump this token which is already in tens of billions, further tens of billions of tokens will be unlocked?
The simplest answer is I am biased and I am going to justify by bias. I am doing my part, yours is to counter me. So do it.
Solana started as L1, contender to Ethereum, raised good money and had very vocal backings. Well, every L1 raised good money & had a long list of vocal backings. Actually Solana with time became associated with FTX very soon. Then price rose from $3 to $200+, FTX then collapsed & Solana fell to sub $20. Further now to 140+, 200+. Well, if you see Solana had already crossed its previous MCap high by significant margin, however the unit price fails to do so. These small things are important to understand. Like Circulating MCap, FDV, Staking, locked tokens.
Circulating Mcap= Current unit price multiplied with present numbers of tokens. FDV is Total tokens that will ever be in circulation multiplied with current price. Staking is You are putting some of your money to work as to generate a yield. To sell your staked token, you have to unstake it first which takes some time, 3 days/7days/14 days.
Funny things about staking. Staking has its own advantage and stories, when millions of tokens are staked, it is shown as belief in the network/protocol. There is a token called TIA. It was locked & staked, Millions in numbers and significant %. It was projected that the tokens are locked for longer term and hence bullish. But not actually, the locked tokens yielded tokens which could be sold. Trust me, the economics were insane. You can also take your loans out of or your locked/staked tokens. In Hype, unstaking period is one-day however to sell the tokens you have to transfer it further to spot account which takes 7 days. May people forget this or don’t give attention, they unstake & just wait to sell. I have been rewarded by both TIA staking & hype staking fortunately. Hype started as a perp dex. It was airdropped. It traded from less than $2 up to $10. Many sold thinking 5x as There’s no other airdropped token in recent times (1-2 years) even with great fundings(100s of Millions) has risen like that. It went up to $33.
$2-$33 among all this chaos.People loudly predicted to farm hype season2. If we see in last 6 months, the team delivered hyperevm and spot trading for BTC, ETH, hype. I don’t know how safe it is. Other things are built on top of the hype ecosystem, borrow and yield. During hype rise from $2-$33, people more & more people traded hype with more & more volume & it made more & more fees. Suppose for a day I make $1 dollar fees, I can say $365 annualised fees. This kind of simple scenario promoted everywhere. Hype made really good fees over a period of time. This was represented as annualised in millions & billions. I am sure hype team wasn’t involved in such useless things but they are people & you should know how they write.
There is something called Market Makers. In theory they should provide liquidity while maintaining a very thing spread and should not involve in pumps and dumps. But in practice, they promote a token by using single narrative and then dump their holdings with time.
There is something called DefiLlama. It is a good place to see their things very clearly. (1) How much fees protocol has made till now. (2) Variation of fees over times.
When hype started falling from $33 to $12, as usual we all panicked. Between these price range, some usual things happened. Some sophisticated traders took advantage of liquidation rules, made money and HLP Vault lost money. Hyperliquid team then further changed the rule. There was a very wide discussion on twitter regarding this. Some people who are highly technically acknowledged also raised their voice against hyperliquid centralization. Some said hyperliquid team should have bought USDC (stable coin) with assistance fund rather than buying their native token itself.
By this time, hyperevm had been functional & spot trading has arrived and many had sold the airdropped tokens and many might have thought that hype has become old coin.
But it is again $12 – $40+. Why I think it has risen. Following are general statements which I am not backing mathematically as I hope they are true.
① Perp volume on dex is increasing as compared to cex. And its not dydx
② The team delivered what they promised. Hyperevm, spot, decentralisation.
③ Literally there are no VCs, no market makers to dump on you.
④ Just recently it was traded on Binance US.
⑤ Coins like Solana & BNB were had gigantic rise because of FTX & Binance.
Some are thinking hype to be compared to Binance exchange. Well hype doesn’t offer banking on/off-ramp.
While I am writing this it rose from $39 to $48 and now $40. I got airdrop. Held it till $26.Sold all. Got again at $32. Sold all $21. Happy when it went to $12. Bought some again at $33, $37. And finally Converted Eth & to hype at $40.
14 Billion Dollars is a lot. But once I wrote a blog for myself when dogecoin was $8 billion & at that I wrote that it is a scam & one should only buy utility coin. At least, it seems to me that Hyperliquid team is genuine & so I am in it.
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